A Steam expert claims developers will know "almost immediately" if their game has the 'magic' to become a hit on the digital storefront, but also states that titles typically have a short window to secure that magic, as if they don't gain 250 reviews within the first month, "it's probably not going to happen." However, one game last year defied the odds.

Games marketing consultant and strategist Chris Zukowski suggested during a GDC panel that developers will know within "a week, a month" whether they have a hit on their hands. He explained that if Valve "detects your game has the magic, they're going to do everything they can to get you exposure," and that this typically happens very quickly.

Zukowski revealed that he looked at "every single game that made it on Steam" last year – "making it on Steam" being the "goal" the consultant believes developers should pursue, which he estimated is achieved after generating around $150,000 in gross revenue within "the first six to nine months". Of these games, a whopping 74% "made it" within the first three months. "It happens so fast," he added.

Of course, there are exceptions. Among Us, for example, exploded in popularity in 2020, but was actually released in 2018.  Zukowski reiterated that this isn't the norm, noting: "I looked at the 114,000 games that were released last year that didn't have the magic, that didn't make it on Steam. Only one game recovered. I found it. I found one game last year that made it on Steam. It's called Beltmatic."

This is a "casual factory game" developed by Notional Games which garnered only 51 reviews within three months of launch, but reached 1,000 reviews nine months later.

Regarding last year's outlier, Zukowski continued: "I'm just going to be frank with you, if you don't hit 250 reviews in the first month, it's probably not going to happen. It's impossible. It's time to work on what's next. Plan B, or something. It has failed, you're not going to make it later. One game, called Beltmatic, is the only game that's ever done it. I'm just going to be frank. I'm sorry."

It's a tough landscape, though there are at least a few examples of games making a comeback.  Data shows Steam is making more money than ever, but only 2.6% of games surpass $250,000 in revenue within their first month, while around 200 titles generate over $1 million within 30 days of launch.